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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 66

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:43) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 56 yards to SF 10, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 13-R.James.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.31 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP