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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 55

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 – San Francisco 49ers 9

What Actually Happened

(10:08) 9-B.Anger punts 40 yards to SF 15, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 13-R.James.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.72 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model