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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 17 at the 66

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 – San Francisco 49ers 9

What Actually Happened

(3:12) 9-B.Anger punts 45 yards to SF 21, Center-89-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +0.66 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model