Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 87

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 9-B.Anger punts 47 yards to SF 40, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 13-R.James to SF 49 for 9 yards (32-J.Rodgers). PENALTY on SF-32-D.Reed, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 40.

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.36 EP
67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 87, worth -4.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model