4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 3

Tennessee Titans 10 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 88-L.Stocker up the middle to HOU 3 for no gain (41-Z.Cunningham; 55-B.McKinney).

The Three Options

GO +3.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.08 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 3, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model