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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 40

Houston Texans 21 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 8-T.Daniel punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.55 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.86 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP