4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 13

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:50) 4-R.Succop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +2.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.89 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 13, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 23, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP