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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 43

Houston Texans 24 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(11:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins pushed ob at TEN 38 for 5 yards (25-A.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.22 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 43, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model