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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 16 at the 88

Tennessee Titans 17 – Houston Texans 27

What Actually Happened

(11:51) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to HOU 33, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-D.Carter to HOU 40 for 7 yards (56-S.Finch).

The Three Options

GO -3.33 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.14 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 88, worth -5.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 46, worth -2.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model