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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 13 at the 78

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(10:19) 8-T.Daniel punts 50 yards to TEN 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 31 for 3 yards (58-P.Kalambayi).

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 78, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 35, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model