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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 40

Houston Texans 34 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 8-T.Daniel punts 31 yards to TEN 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 17-C.Batson.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +1.39 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.84 EP