Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 60

Miami Dolphins 14 – Buffalo Bills 9

(6:24) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 56 yards to BUF 4, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.64 EP
62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 60, worth -3.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model