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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 73

Buffalo Bills 9 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(3:29) (Punt formation) 8-M.Darr punts 50 yards to MIA 23, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-30-L.Pitts.

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.48 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 73, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 31, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model