Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 75

Miami Dolphins 14 – Buffalo Bills 9

(1:55) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 52 yards to BUF 23, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 19-I.McKenzie.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.64 EP
64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model