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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 49

Miami Dolphins 21 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(2:33) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 39 yards to BUF 10, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +0.67 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -1.45 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model