4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 30

Buffalo Bills 17 – Miami Dolphins 21

What Actually Happened

(1:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 85-C.Clay.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +3.55 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.79 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 40, worth -0.34 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.13 EP