4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 60

Buffalo Bills 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(6:57) (Punt formation) 8-M.Darr punts 53 yards to MIA 7, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 10-K.Stills to MIA 13 for 6 yards (29-S.Neal).

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.24 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 60, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 19, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model