Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 16 at the 57

Buffalo Bills 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(2:59) (Punt formation) 8-M.Darr punts 47 yards to MIA 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 10-K.Stills MUFFS catch, touched at MIA 10, and recovers at MIA 13. 10-K.Stills to MIA 13 for no gain (30-L.Pitts).

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.67 EP
76% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 57, worth -3.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model