Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 82

Carolina Panthers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(7:06) 5-M.Palardy punts 55 yards to TB 27, Center-44-J.Jansen. 10-A.Humphries MUFFS catch, and recovers at TB 23. 10-A.Humphries to TB 23 for no gain (23-K.Barner).

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.40 EP
63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model