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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Carolina Panthers
4th & 9 at the 48
Carolina Panthers 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24
What Actually Happened
(2:25) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep middle to 17-D.Funchess.
The Three Options
GO
+0.05 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.63 EP
- 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 48, worth -1.50 EP
KICK
-0.60 EP
- 24% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
- 76% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT
-0.37 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
