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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:44) 5-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.81 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.49 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model