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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 54

Carolina Panthers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 5-M.Palardy punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.73 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 54, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model