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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 81

Chicago Bears 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(10:12) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 53 yards to NYG 28, Center-48-P.Scales. 80-J.Davis to NYG 38 for 10 yards (48-P.Scales, 44-N.Kwiatkoski).

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.32 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 81, worth -4.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 38, worth -2.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model