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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 48

New York Giants 7 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(:06) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 85-R.Ellison pushed ob at CHI 39 for 9 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson).

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +0.96 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 48, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model