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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 19 at the 59

Chicago Bears 14 – New York Giants 24

What Actually Happened

(14:42) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to NYG 20, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-44-N.Kwiatkoski.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.23 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 59, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 18, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model