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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 70

New York Giants 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(11:04) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to CHI 16, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 31 for 15 yards (9-R.Dixon).

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 70, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 28, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model