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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 17 at the 39

New York Giants 24 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to CHI 2, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-51-Z.DeOssie. 81-R.Shepard tips the ball to A.Hamilton who then tips it to 51-Z.DeOssie to down the ball prior to the end zone.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.76 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 39, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 48, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.80 EP