4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 61

Chicago Bears 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to NYG 18, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 80-J.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.70 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 61, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 20, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP