Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 68

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(7:30) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 47 yards to PIT 21, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer. PENALTY on PIT-45-R.Nix, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 21.

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.16 EP
67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model