Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 61

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 16

What Actually Happened

(1:47) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 52 yards to PIT 9, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 18 for 9 yards (48-N.Dzubnar, 57-J.Brown). PENALTY on PIT-29-B.Allen, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at PIT 18.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.36 EP
63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model