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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 47

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:59) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 35 yards to LAC 12, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.10 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP