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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 70

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 – Los Angeles Chargers 23

What Actually Happened

(12:08) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 49 yards to LAC 21, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 20-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.70 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model