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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 43

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 – Los Angeles Chargers 30

What Actually Happened

(5:58) (Run formation) 30-J.Conner up the middle to LAC 41 for 2 yards (20-D.King).

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.68 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model