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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 67

Minnesota Vikings 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 6-M.Wile punts 48 yards to NE 19, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 67, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.62 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 25, worth -1.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP