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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 60

New England Patriots 10 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(14:27) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to MIN 17, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.78 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 60, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 19, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model