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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 78

Minnesota Vikings 7 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 6-M.Wile punts 44 yards to NE 34, Center-47-K.McDermott. 11-J.Edelman to MIN 44 for 22 yards (27-J.Kearse). PENALTY on NE-36-B.King, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 34.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.02 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 78, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.16 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 35, worth -2.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model