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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 15 at the 30

New England Patriots 10 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(6:26) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.09 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 40, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model