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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 62

Minnesota Vikings 10 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(9:02) 25-L.Murray up the middle to MIN 39 for 1 yard (98-T.Flowers; 93-L.Guy). NE-23-P.Chung was injured during the play. New England challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2 at 08:52.)

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.19 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 62, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 21, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model