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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 35

New England Patriots 24 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(:54) 6-R.Allen punts 35 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +1.40 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 35, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 45, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.28 EP