Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 72

Minnesota Vikings 0 – New England Patriots 7

(14:11) 6-M.Wile punts 47 yards to NE 25, Center-47-K.McDermott. 11-J.Edelman to NE 31 for 6 yards (50-E.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.34 EP
58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 72, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model