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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 74

New Orleans Saints 0 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(13:39) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to DAL 22, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds. PENALTY on NO-31-C.Banjo, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.81 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 74, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 32, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model