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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 1

New Orleans Saints 0 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(10:04) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara left tackle to DAL 1 for no gain (90-D.Lawrence, 98-T.Crawford).

The Three Options

GO +3.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.35 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 1, worth +0.22 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model