Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 64

Dallas Cowboys 13 – New Orleans Saints 3

(5:56) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 47 yards to NO 17, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 41-A.Kamara MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at NO 12.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.45 EP
66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 64, worth -3.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model