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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 68

Dallas Cowboys 13 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(14:17) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to NO 18, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at NO 34 for 16 yards (91-L.Ladouceur; 38-J.Heath).

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.46 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 68, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 26, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model