Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 15 at the 76

Dallas Cowboys 3 – New Orleans Saints 0

(6:44) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 51 yards to NO 25, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 41-A.Kamara to NO 26 for 1 yard (35-K.Frazier).

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.32 EP
70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 76, worth -4.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model