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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 16

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 41-J.Wilson up the middle to SEA 14 for 2 yards (58-A.Calitro).

The Three Options

GO +2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.79 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 16, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model