4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 69

Seattle Seahawks 13 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:39) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to SF 26, Center-69-T.Ott. 13-R.James to SF 28 for 2 yards (28-J.Coleman).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.57 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.63 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP