4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 58

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(4:19) 5-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to SEA 10, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.00 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 58, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 18, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model