Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 86

Seattle Seahawks 13 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 56 yards to SF 30, Center-69-T.Ott. 13-R.James MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SEA-23-N.Thorpe at SF 33. 23-N.Thorpe to SF 33 for no gain (13-R.James).

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.85 EP
52% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 86, worth -4.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model