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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 27

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(:05) 9-R.Gould 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +2.71 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 37, worth -0.16 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model